AFL Grand Final 2024 - Norm Smith Medal Predictions

As the 2024 AFL Grand Final approaches, footy fans across the nation are not only excited about the clash between the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions, but also the race for the Norm Smith Medal, awarded to the player judged best on ground. In this year’s final at the MCG, some of the league’s top stars are in contention for this prestigious award. Here’s a detailed look at the Norm Smith Medal, the contenders, and why they’re being tipped to take home this honour.

The Norm Smith Medal, first introduced in 1979, is awarded to the player deemed the best on ground in the AFL Grand Final. Named after legendary Melbourne coach Norm Smith, this medal has become one of the most coveted individual accolades in the sport. While midfielders typically dominate this award due to their influence across the field, players from various positions have earned it through game-changing performances on the biggest stage.

The 2024 AFL Grand Final is a showdown between two of the league’s most dynamic teams. Sydney enters as the minor premiers, having led the competition for most of the season, while Brisbane arrives at the ‘G after a season of building momentum. The Swans boast a well-balanced team, while the Lions are fuelled by attacking brilliance and defensive solidity. Both teams are hungry for premiership glory, setting the stage for a classic encounter.

Isaac Heeney has been in exceptional form this season, and his versatility makes him a strong candidate for the Norm Smith Medal. Heeney has the ability to play both in the midfield and forward, with his goal-kicking ability often giving Sydney the edge in tight games. As one of Sydney’s most impactful players, Heeney will need to rise to the occasion if the Swans are to claim victory. His experience in big games and ability to hit the scoreboard give him an excellent shot at winning the medal.

Warner’s breakout season in 2024 has cemented him as one of the AFL’s rising stars. Known for his ability to win the ball and make decisive plays, Warner has been a key figure in Sydney’s midfield. His relentless energy and knack for stepping up in pressure moments make him a strong contender for the Norm Smith Medal. Warner's ability to impact both defensively and offensively will be crucial in a game that’s expected to be closely contested.

Despite being a young player, Will Ashcroft has already made a significant impact at Brisbane. His poise under pressure and elite ball use have earned him a reputation as one of the game’s most promising midfielders. If Brisbane triumphs, Ashcroft’s ability to control the game through the midfield could see him take home the Norm Smith Medal. His rapid development and maturity suggest that he could shine on the biggest stage.

Lachie Neale is no stranger to individual accolades, having previously won the Brownlow Medal. Neale’s ball-winning ability and leadership in the midfield will be pivotal if Brisbane is to claim their first premiership since 2003. His experience and ability to consistently rack up possessions make him one of the favourites for the Norm Smith. If he can control the tempo of the game, Neale will be difficult to overlook for best-on-ground honours.

Although forwards rarely win the Norm Smith Medal, Joe Daniher could break the mould if he delivers a dominant performance. Known for his ability to turn games with his goal-scoring and marking power, Daniher’s presence in the forward line will be vital for Brisbane. If he can kick a bag of goals, he could easily become the standout player of the match and claim the medal.

Rayner’s versatility and ability to influence games from multiple positions make him another strong contender. He’s been known to deliver big moments, particularly in finals, and his knack for stepping up when it matters could see him emerge as Brisbane’s best on the day. Rayner’s ability to impact both in attack and the midfield will be key to the Lions’ success.

McCluggage is one of the league’s most consistent midfielders, and his ability to push forward and kick goals adds another dimension to Brisbane’s midfield. He has the perfect blend of work rate and finishing ability, which will be critical in the Grand Final. If McCluggage can link up play and find space, he could be a surprise winner of the Norm Smith.

Historically, midfielders have dominated the Norm Smith Medal due to their influence in critical moments of the game. Players who can win the ball, provide defensive efforts, and hit the scoreboard often catch the attention of the judges. While occasionally forwards or defenders win the award, as seen with Brian Lake in 2013, the midfield remains the heart of most Grand Final performances.

Another factor is that the winner typically comes from the premiership side, though exceptions exist, such as Chris Judd’s 2005 performance for West Coast in a losing effort. Players who kick goals and make significant contributions in high-pressure moments are more likely to stand out.

The race for the 2024 Norm Smith Medal is as open as the Grand Final itself. With stars on both sides capable of match-winning performances, it will come down to who seizes the moment on the biggest stage. Whether it’s Sydney’s Isaac Heeney or Chad Warner, or Brisbane’s Lachie Neale or Will Ashcroft, the medal will likely be decided by moments of brilliance that tip the game in their team’s favour.

In just his second AFL season, Will Ashcroft was awarded the Norm Smith Medal for his outstanding performance in the 2024 Grand Final. Ashcroft dominated the game, amassing 30 disposals and kicking a crucial goal in the Brisbane Lions' 60-point victory. His composure and skill on the biggest stage of the year showcased his immense talent, making him the standout player in a game where Brisbane firmly asserted their dominance. Ashcroft’s performance not only secured him the prestigious award but also highlighted his potential as one of the league’s future stars.